Don't Count the NDP Out Yet.
Reports of the death of the New Democratic Party are somewhat premature.
It is no surprise there is near-universal agreement among the pundits that the NDP is finished. I’ve heard that before, in almost every election. A tremendous amount of effort is put in to convincing us that the NDP doesn’t have a chance, never did, never will… kind of makes you wonder why they spend so much money telling us that.
No party matches the NDP ground-game. Volunteers knock on doors, have face to face conversations, and pull out the vote. National polls do not capture what is happening on the ground in specific ridings.
The NDP will likely adopt a fortress defense strategy, putting boots on the ground and resources into the ridings they currently hold. The ABC (anyone but Conservative) argument actually works in their favour in these ridings, they just need to have the conversations. The Ontario election shows that this strategy can hold ridings, against prevailing trends.
There are also a handful of strong NDP candidates hoping to make breakthroughs in their respective ridings. Joel Harden’s powerful machine in Ottawa Centre has shifted from provincial to federal. He’s knocked on these doors before. Harden was a popular Member of Provincial Parliament, has a strong community activist background, and is no-doubt looking forward to having an unrestrained voice as Member of Parliament. Joel’s voice would be a lively addition to both parliament and caucus.
Another campaign that could upset the trend is Avi Lewis’ bid for Vancouver Centre. Avi is a climate activist and film maker with deep family roots in the NDP. He also has a massive network of likeminded people that has the ability to become a political machine when necessary. If this network is mobilized on the ground in Vancouver Centre for door-knocking, phone-banking and more, we may have a real climate champion and new charismatic voice in parliament.
If there is one thing I have learned in a lifetime of politics, it is that political winds can change quickly. This campaign is far from finished and likely still has big surprises to come. Mark Carney’s fortunes may turn as quickly as they came. His political fortunes, I mean. I’m sure his actual fortune is safe.
There is still plenty of time for political upsets and curveballs. The seemingly erratic actions of the white house can shift political winds quickly, as we have already seen this year. Global events may also shift intentions during the campaign period. A day is a long time in politics.
In the meantime, I’ve seen people in orange hats walking around neighboughoods with clip-boards.
A rise in NDP helps poiLIEvre😱🤮😞
Any walk I take around Halifax shows a preponderance signs for NDP Lisa Roberts. She has been actively campaigning here for months, and I was happy to talk with her when she knocked on my door, assuring her she can count on my vote. That was before the bi-election here was called, and then nullified when Carney took over from Trudeau and, understandably, promptly called the federal election. I hope he gets a majority win and that Lisa Roberts also wins a seat to help keep the Liberals accountable. Even more, if possible, I hope P.P. loses his seat and his party takes a huge hit.