The End of the Rules Based International Order

This is a new period in world history, a period where imperialist powers are nakedly motivated by their own interests, a time when conflicts, both economic and military, will become commonplace.

It wasn’t long ago that the politicians of America, both Democrat and Republican, were puffing out their chests and decrying Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “It goes against the rules based international order!” they all cried. The story is simple: Almost every country in the world has agreed to follow a set of rules to settle international conflicts. These rules insure that conflicts are settled by diplomacy, courts and tribunals that insure a fair outcome for everyone. These rules allow the world to settle conflict without war.

There’s only one problem: It was all bullshit.

Now I want to be clear, I don’t support Russian imperialism. I believe that the Ukrainian people have the right to self-determination. I think Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was a heinous act of imperialism aimed at subjugating a smaller nation. In fact, when it comes to war, I think a bayonet is a tool used for making profit that has a worker at each end. I’m on the side of the workers. I oppose all imperialist war. I believe that workers in Canada, the United States, Ukraine and Russia all have more in common with each other, than they do with their own governments. The extent to which we get pulled into conflict is the result of competing imperialist interests.

That’s not to give the West a free-pass. America’s interest in Ukraine is also motivated by imperialism. Pulling Ukraine into their influence and gaining access to their resources has been part of Washington’s calculus from the beginning. This is a battle between East and West. Some Ukrainians may see this as a war of national liberation, but it is questionable the extent to which that was ever on the table. This war is being fought over the question of whether Ukraine will be dominated by the East or the West.

War is a result of capitalist relations. It is inevitable as long as private interests make the societal decisions. There is no “rules based international order” that will end war. Only justice will do that. No justice, no peace.

The rules based international order was always just a pretense. The first and obvious question is: Whose rules? These rules were put in place by the victors of the second world war. You may not be surprised then to realize that these rules are tailored to the benefit of the major powers on this planet. In fact, the big ones even get a veto at the UN.

The first rule of the rules based international order is that the powerful get to make the rules. Might makes right. That has always been the rule, but it is actually rather expensive in practice. So, we can see the real character of our “rules based international order” in the previous period: a cost savings measure. The aim was to avoid spilling blood and treasure, and if we’re real about, just treasure. Imperialist powers have never had a problem spilling blood for treasure.

There is no objective set of rules that everyone has to follow; there is in fact, one set of rules for the powerful and another set of rules for the smaller, weak nations.

The charade that has been presented as international law is actually just a cost-saving measure. It allows major imperialist powers to settle disputes without direct confrontation. This makes everything easier in the context of the MAD principle. The limitations of such an approach are evident: this will only suffice for diffusing conflicts where a simple cost/benefit analysis can prevail. As soon as we have a question that poses a threat to the fundamental interests of any major imperialist power, the rules break down. In reality, the rules based international order that we have known has always simply been about allowing the major powers to maintain control in their own spheres of influence.

So in mourning the loss of the rules based international order, we must first remember that the rules were based on order, not the other way around.

Jettisoning this term is important though, because this term provided a sort of cover for imperialist powers. It suggested that there was something resembling justice at the heart of it. That was never the case as many would point out, but it would be a mistake to miss the significance of this turn. America is dropping the pretense of procedural fairness in international relations.

Many would think that this change is the result of one man, that Donald Trump has gone crazy and is too stupid to understand what he is destroying. Trump is a tyrant and there’s no further analysis needed! This would be a mistake.

When we pull the camera back, we begin to see the larger picture. Donald Trump is being used as a battering ram by powerful interests. He is here to destroy the old order and usher in a new one. Trump’s first term was largely motivated by self-enrichment. He spent four years fighting with the old guard, while making deal after deal that benefitted him. This term is different. Donald Trump has an agenda that is much bigger than his own. He’s just the front man.

At the heart of the matter is a fact which many have not yet come to terms with, America is being surpassed as the leading global super-power. But don’t just take my word for it, Trump’s Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently had this to say,

“Where our interests align, that’s where you have partnerships and alliances; where our differences are not aligned, that is where the job of diplomacy is to prevent conflict while still furthering our national interests and understanding they’re going to further theirs. And that’s been lost.

And I think that was lost at the end of the Cold War, because we were the only power in the world, and so we assumed this responsibility of sort of becoming the global government in many cases, trying to solve every problem. And there are terrible things happening in the world. There are. And then there are things that are terrible that impact our national interest directly, and we need to prioritize those again. So it’s not normal for the world to simply have a unipolar power. That was not – that was an anomaly. It was a product of the end of the Cold War, but eventually you were going to reach back to a point where you had a multipolar world, multi-great powers in different parts of the planet. We face that now with China and to some extent Russia, and then you have rogue states like Iran and North Korea you have to deal with.

So now more than ever we need to remember that foreign policy should always be about furthering the national interest of the United States and doing so, to the extent possible, avoiding war and armed conflict, which we have seen two times in the last century be very costly.”

It is incredible that these words could be spoken aloud by a US Secretary of State. There is much to unpack here, but first and foremost it should be pointed out that this is a complete departure from everything the Americans have said since the fall of the Berlin wall. There was never any talk about returning to a multi-polar world at all, let alone stating it was inevitable. Far from it, they declared the end of history!

American imperialism was euphoric. They had won. History was over. They were in charge. We were told that the era of war and conflict deciding major issues was over. We had, for the first time, a global system, a global order. America became the world police, and intervened asserting their interests everywhere. Now we are told that was “an anomaly”. It was never meant to last. This was inevitable…

To be clear, these are the words of a sore loser.

Rubio may try to gaslight Americans into thinking otherwise, but it was never in the plans of America to be second place. It is an insult to our collective intelligence to say otherwise.

America’s empire is waning. They can no longer play the role they have for the last 30+ years. America First is not just a slogan, it is a realignment. Trump’s words, disguised as those of a strong-man, are actually covering up great weakness. This is a retreat.

America’s foreign policy will now be determined solely by what is best for America. But that has always been the case. What has actually changed is America’s interests. For the last three decades, upholding the international order has been at the forefront of American foreign policy. But if America is not on top of the world, what interest does it have in maintaining the world order?

This is a new period in world history, a period where imperialist powers are nakedly motivated by their own interests, a time when conflicts, both economic and military, will become commonplace. The world is returning to a time of imperialist conflict between major powers. This is the true nature of a “multi-polar world”. And if we are honest with ourselves, we must admit that this in itself is just a transition. A multi-polar world is not the end result; it is the transition to a new order. There will, in time, be a new leading global super-power. It will not be America.