Thinking the Unthinkable: War With the United States of America

It is worth considering worst-case scenarios, not because they are likely but because they are possible.

Tensions between the Canadian and American governments have reached an unprecedented level. There is a long history of trade tensions between the two nations, but this time is different. Americans are not just seeking a more favourable trade balance with Canada; the President of the United States of America has stated his aim is to use economic pressure to annex Canada.

Not surprisingly, Canadians have responded angrily. Few in Canada like the idea of joining the US (excluding a significant portion of Conservative voters who think the idea is just dandy). Nobody with a brain wants to throw themselves onto the dumpster-fire raging out of control south of the border. America is a mess.

Canada may have begun as a colonization project, and indeed this colonization is still ongoing, but it has also become an imperialist power in its own right. Canadian companies are heavily involved with mining and resource extraction all over the world. Canadian banks are major players in Latin America. The Canadian state projects power (including soft-power and covert operations) wherever its interests are at risk.

Many on the left have spent so much time fighting Canadian imperialism, that any national flag-waving provokes a visceral reaction. This is understandable. Most Canadians are unaware of the horrors that have been done in their name, both at home and abroad. What does a Canadian flag mean to a residential school survivor, to a Quebec sovereigntist, to the convoy crowd? It means different things to different people, as most symbols do. You won’t find me raising that standard, at least until it has lost the white parts, but I’ll be damned if I’m going to let my home be annexed by the red, white and blue!

Leftists have a duty to resist American annexation, if for no other reason than to weaken American imperialism. A successful annexation of Canada would more than double the landmass of the United States. It could breathe new life into the American empire and global capitalism. Donald Trump is ripping up all regulations and no doubt would extend this to the 51^st state. It would be a mad scramble to raid and exhaust resources, with no oversight or regulation whatsoever.

Conversely, the resistance to such an invasion and the people’s war that followed would present an opportunity to reshape Canada itself. Neither country would ever be the same.

In the coming decades, climate change will force the US into Canada, one way or another. Wars are fought over essential scarce resources. America is already short on water. At the time of writing, a majority of states are experiencing severe drought conditions. Many aquafers have been depleted. Trump wants to “turn on the tap” from Canada. More than that, America wants to secure the arctic. Underneath Trump’s snide comments lie the long term ambitions of the US empire.

This is not to say that war is inevitable. There are many peaceful ways for this to play out, but there is a reality that in this century America’s interests in Canada will become critical. If Canadian resources are not made easily available when this time comes, America will move to more forceful measures. As the old saying goes, war is an extension of politics by other means.

All the bluster about the 51^st state at first seemed absurd. It is, however, normalizing the talk of conquest. If there is one lesson to take from the Trump regime, it is that we should pay close attention when they start dragging that Overton window to the right. Only a year ago it was unthinkable that officials attached to any administration could get away with throwing Nazi salutes in front of a crowd. If you are gullible enough to buy the line that Musk’s gesture was unintentional (twice), how would you explain Steve Bannon’s Nazi salute at CPAC just a few weeks later? It was enough for French far-right leader Bardella to cancel his speech at the event. Not even France’s National Rally wants to be openly associated with Nazis. But somehow, half of Americans are now seemingly okay with their leaders making overt gestures of support for Nazism.

It is my contention that a shift towards war with Canada could happen just as rapidly. Americans love war. They may deny it; they may say war is awful, but just look at history. Politicians starting wars are met with cheers and a bump in the polls. It is shockingly easy to get American’s to rally behind a war-drive. Given that a number of those in the Trump administration have already demonstrated their fondness for Nazi ideology, it is worth remembering Herman Goering’s words on the matter,

"Of course the people don't want war. But after all, it's the leaders of the country who determine the policy, and it's always a simple matter to drag the people along whether it's a democracy, a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism, and exposing the country to greater danger."

As a point of planning, it is worth considering worst-case scenarios, not because they are likely but because they are possible. You don’t buy home insurance because you expect your house to burn down; you buy it in case tragedy strikes. It is worth seriously thinking about what a hostile takeover of Canada might look like. As unlikely as the scenario may be, it is prudent to consider all options.

Destabilization

If America decides to annex Canada by force, they would begin with a destabilization campaign. A campaign of dirty tricks, aimed at destabilizing the country would begin, likely lasting months to years. American intelligence agents in Canada would be activated, others would make their way here on whatever pretense. They would aim at penetrating public institutions and political organizations. A quick read of the US Army field manual for sabotage from WWII can give you an idea of what is in store. We can imagine that techniques have been refined somewhat since then.

Political and economic destabilization would be matched with active disinformation campaigns. Critical infrastructure would be systematically sabotaged, possibly in false flag operations blaming “terrorists”. A gradual grinding down of efficient functioning of society is enough to create incredible turmoil on many fronts.

Much can be understood about the intentions of this administration by the language they employ. Even when sailing on a sea of lies, you can tell which way the wind is blowing. According to Trump Canadians are nasty people to deal with, and drug cartels have taken over the country… when he starts talking about terrorists, it is time to start digging trenches.

When the ground is sufficiently laid with destabilization and disruption tactics and the messaging has shifted to the talk of enemies, terrorists, dehumanizing language and weapons of mass destruction… America may be prepared to move militarily. Little build-up would be needed and could be accomplished covertly. Any staged event could then kick off the war.

Those who are not students of history may find this hard to believe. I would encourage skeptics to go read about Operation Northwoods. The document titled “Justification for U.S. Military Intervention in Cuba” was prepared by the US Joint Chiefs of Staff in 1962. This now declassified plan proposed covert operations to bomb American cities, sink American ships, shoot down airliners and publish inflated casualty lists, all to provide what the title of the document promises. Kennedy rejected the plan.

In truth, America has a long history of starting wars on false pretenses. Iraq didn’t have weapons of mass destruction, Osama Bin Laden was hiding in Pakistan, the Gulf of Tonkin incident wasn’t what we were told it was - the NSA deliberately skewed intelligence and the August 4^th incident didn’t even happen. They say truth is the first casualty in war. American history demonstrates that the truth gets tossed out the window long before the first shots are fired. When America wants to go to war, they make the decision and manufacture the situation to justify their actions.

Invasion

At the time of attack, a “shock and awe” style campaign would begin to wipe out Canadian military and civilian infrastructure, taking down power grids, cell phone networks, communication lines, and any piece of Canadian military equipment capable of firing back. America’s superior electronic warfare capabilities would wreak havoc on critical systems.

Tens of thousands of sorties would take out Canadian military bases and equipment in the first 72 hours of the war. Ground incursions could begin in multiple locations, capturing strategic corridors, resources and population centers. The Americans could move to force a quick capitulation with overwhelming force. It is important to remember that many expected the Ukrainian war to last three days. It is time to throw around some important clichés, because they’re cliché for a reason. Napoleon said that war is the most complicated of all equations. Factors that are not possible to consider in advance are built in to war. Which brings us to the next cliché: No battle plan survives first contact with the enemy.

If Canadians somehow manage to stall the offensive, they may find reinforcements arriving from abroad. No doubt there would be a myriad of interests willing to supply weapons to a Canadian resistance. A quagmire on America’s border is a dream to many of its adversaries. So much so that there is real risk of becoming the battleground for a proxy war, that wrecks the country with little regard for what is left or what comes after. Such a scenario would be the worst case for both Canada and the United States of America.

Canadians may be heavily out-gunned, but I would argue that America would eventually lose this war. They would lose this when the resistance to their occupation outlasted their determination to conquer. It may take years, even decades, but America would eventually lose this war. Canadians may not have the overwhelming fire-power, but in Vietnam America was defeated by an army that didn’t have shoes.

Occupation

While the initial invasion could be over quickly, even with a complete break in continuity of government and chain of command, the remaining armed forces would surely dissolve into a guerilla resistance, with no shortage of civilian volunteers. America would never be able to forcibly hold Canada. There are millions of people with guns in Canada. Resources for IEDs are not hard to come by. Occupation forces would face a peoples’ war with mass mobilizations and general strikes alongside an armed guerilla resistance.

The resources they are after would remain permanently out of reach. Moving them across the vast geography of Canada would prove impossible in the face of resistance and sabotage. They would be unable to defend pipelines through the wilderness. Oil would cease to move. As would minerals and other resources, as resistance forces targeted rail lines, bridges and other critical infrastructure required to extract them. Canada is a big country.

American forces would be forced to set up various occupations zones, with supposed “green zones” in the cities and near strategic resources. Check points and military posts would make it difficult to move, both in town and between cities. Occupation forces would face a constant campaign of harassing individual attacks. Every soldier in every city would constantly be looking over their shoulder. Every window, every alley, every roof-top, a potential ambush.

Such occupations are brutal on a population. The frayed nerves of soldiers turn to quick trigger fingers that are inevitably aimed at civilians. Existing under American occupation would be the darkest years in Canadian history. There would undoubtedly be those who were willing to go along with the new authority, taking positions of power and privilege. People considering such a path should learn from history, rather than experience. The end is not kind for them.

The end of the occupation would come when the American people rejected the war. Eventually whatever war hysteria exists at the beginning will wear thin. America may even be at risk of civil war from the outset of hostilities. The war would certainly be tremendously controversial, even as the war drums are beating. Bodies coming home, alongside images of dead Canadian children would eat away at support. Eventually, America would lose the war at home.

Such a defeat for America would signal an end to their place as a major world power. If America is not capable of destroying their immediate neighbour, with a tenth of their population, why then would more capable distant adversaries worry? It would doubtlessly go down as one of the greatest military blunders in world history. In the centuries that followed, “invading Canada” would become a common term for actions committed by a declining, senile empire resulting in catastrophic self-inflicted collapse.